Republicans See Voter Surge in Arizona County That Cost Trump Swing State

Republicans’ advantage in a key Arizona county’s voter registration has surged since 2020, as the state remains hotly contested in the 2024 race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Arizona is a crucial swing state in this year’s election. It narrowly backed President Joe Biden in 2020 after voting for Republicans in every other presidential race since 2000. Polls show a tight race in the state since Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee, replacing Biden amid concerns about whether he could mount a successful presidential campaign to beat Trump in November.
Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, the state’s largest city, will be crucial to how Arizona votes in November. It will be one of the most watched counties in the United States in November. Over half of Arizonans live in Maricopa County, and Democrats’ strong showing in the county delivered the state to Biden in 2020.
Biden won Maricopa County by about two points while winning statewide by only 0.3 percentage points. Biden carried the county and the state primarily due to making inroads with independent suburban voters who may determine the election outcome again.
However, new voter registration data from Arizona suggests that Democrats have slipped in the county since 2020, while Republicans have made gains in the number of voters who identify with their party.
The July 30 data found that 692,294 voters in Maricopa County identified as Democrats, 851,227 identified as Republicans, and more than 800,000 others identified with another party or as independents.
Data released on August 4, 2020, showed that 764,774 voters identified as Democrats, while 849,313 identified as Republicans. In a four-year period, 72,480 voters changed their affiliation away from Democrats, while Republicans gained 1,914 new voters in the same time period.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Notably, more than 800,000 voters in the county still don’t identify as either a Democrat or a Republican. They will be crucial in the upcoming election as Harris and Trump battle for support among these swing voters.
Republicans have an advantage in the statewide voter registration numbers, but polls still suggest a close race between Harris and Trump.
Across the state, about 1.29 million voters are registered Democrats, 1.39 million are registered Republicans, and 1.3 million are not registered with either party.
A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted among 677 likely voters from August 8 to August 15 found Harris with a 5-point lead over Trump in Arizona (50 percent to 45 percent).
Meanwhile, a Noble Predictive Insights survey conducted among 1,003 registered voters from August 12 to August 16 found Trump leading by three points (47 percent to 44 percent).
FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate shows the race nearly tied, with Harris holding only a narrow 0.8-point lead over Trump. An average from RealClearPolitics gives Harris a 0.6-point advantage.